New exit poll data has challenged the narrative that low voter turnout among New Patriotic Party (NPP) supporters was the primary reason for the party’s loss in the 2024 presidential election.
The findings reveal significant voter switching between the two major parties, with a notable portion of former NPP voters casting their ballots for John Dramani Mahama (JDM) of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
The analysis, which examined voter behaviour in the 2024 election compared voting patterns for Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo in 2020 and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) in 2024. It also reviewed patterns of Mahama voters who switched allegiance to Bawumia.
This was disclosed by research company, Global InfoAnalytics, in a post on its X account.
It indicated that in the Ashanti Region, traditionally an NPP stronghold, more Mahama voters from 2020 switched to support Bawumia in 2024, resulting in a net gain of 8% for DMB. A similar trend was observed in the Northeast Region, where DMB enjoyed a 16% net gain.
However, Mahama made net gains across 14 other regions, including significant increases in the Volta Region (36%), Savannah Region (35%), and Greater Accra Region (23%).
“These figures suggest that the narrative of voter apathy among NPP supporters is oversimplified. The evidence shows that a significant portion of voters who supported Nana Addo in 2020 not only turned out in 2024 but actively voted for John Mahama,” the company said.
The data also revealed an average voter switch rate of 22% from Nana Addo to Mahama, compared to an average of 10% switching from Mahama to Bawumia highlighting a larger swing against the NPP than toward it.
