A new nationwide survey has revealed a highly competitive and evenly balanced race for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer position ahead of the 2028 general elections.
The study, conducted by Africa Policy Lens (APL) and led by Dr. Hayford M. Ayerakwa, surveyed constituency executives across all 276 constituencies to assess internal party dynamics and leadership preferences.
The findings show Johnson Asiedu Nketia leading with 31.9% support, closely followed by Julius Debrah at 30.1%, highlighting a tightly contested race at the top.
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When respondents were asked who they would vote for if elections were held immediately, the pattern remained consistent, with Asiedu Nketia polling 32.7% and Debrah securing 30.9%.
The narrow margin between the two frontrunners suggests a political deadlock, with neither candidate able to establish a commanding lead.
Beyond the top two, Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has emerged as a significant figure in the race, particularly in perceptions of competitiveness.
He was identified by many respondents as a closest opponent, indicating that while his direct support may be lower, he remains a strategic factor who could influence the final outcome.
Haruna Iddrisu and other contenders also feature in the broader field, though with comparatively lower rankings.
The survey indicates that leadership qualities, rather than policy proposals, are the main drivers of voter choice among delegates.
Key factors influencing decisions include experience and track record (66.1%), personal integrity (56.8%), and the ability to unite the party (46.8%). Grassroots appeal and public image also ranked highly, while policy proposals were considered less decisive.
This suggests that the race is shaping up as a contest of credibility, trust and unity rather than policy direction.
According to the report, both leading candidates have established strong but limited support bases, with little evidence of expansion beyond their core constituencies.
The race remains competitive but inconclusive, the study noted, emphasizing that no candidate currently commands a winning majority.
The presence of other influential contenders further complicates the race, as their support could prove decisive in later stages.
The survey collected 2,408 responses from constituency executives across Ghana between April 17 and 19, 2026, using a structured SMS-based questionnaire.
Respondents were largely educated and within the 35–44 age group, offering insights from an informed and active segment of the party’s grassroots leadership.
The report concludes that the eventual winner will depend on the ability of candidates to expand their support base and align with the leadership qualities valued by delegates.
With the contest still open and fluid, the coming months will be critical in determining whether any candidate can break the current deadlock and emerge as the party’s preferred choice for 2028.