Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has expressed confidence that Ghana’s inflation rate will remain below 5 percent by the close of 2026, despite concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East could drive up global energy and commodity prices.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Dr. Forson acknowledged that the ongoing conflict poses risks to Ghana’s inflation outlook, particularly from rising petroleum product and fertiliser prices, as well as disruptions to international supply chains.
His comments come after Ghana’s disinflation trend recorded a slight reversal in April 2026, with headline inflation rising to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent in March. The increase ended a 15-month streak of continuous declines in inflation.
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According to the Finance Minister, while external pressures may create some inflationary challenges, Ghana’s strong economic fundamentals and improved foreign exchange position provide a solid buffer against global shocks.
“The conflict poses challenges in terms of petroleum product prices and, most importantly, fertiliser costs and supply chains. Availability is not a concern for us at the moment. The challenge has to do with price increases,” Dr. Forson stated.
Ghana’s decision, he said, not to subsidise petroleum products has insulated the national budget from additional fiscal pressures associated with rising global oil prices.
“The good news is that in Ghana, we do not have subsidies on petroleum products. We have also built significant reserves,” he said.
Dr. Forson highlighted the country’s growing gold production and sustained high international gold prices as major factors strengthening Ghana’s resilience.
“Our gold production is going up, and gold prices remain high. Ghana is therefore in a comfortable position to withstand these shocks,” he added.
The Finance Minister conceded that inflation could experience some upward pressure in the months ahead but insisted that any increase would be moderate and manageable.
“We may see some inflation pressure. It is currently around 3.4 percent, but I still believe we will be better off and that inflation will not exceed 5 percent by the end of the year,” he stressed.
Dr. Forson also pointed to positive developments in Ghana’s export sector, noting that cocoa prices are beginning to recover after recent declines while crude oil exports continue to generate valuable foreign exchange earnings.
“Cocoa prices have started going up again. We are also an oil-exporting country, so we continue to earn foreign exchange from our major exports,” he explained.