Fitch Solutions has raised its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of GDP, up from its earlier projection of 5.2%, following a stronger-than-expected trade performance in the first half of the year.
The research arm of global ratings agency Fitch Ratings said Ghana recorded a US$4.3 billion merchandise trade surplus in the first half of 2026, significantly exceeding the average surplus of about US$700 million recorded during the first halves of 2016 to 2025.
According to Fitch Solutions, robust gold exports and rising crude oil shipments largely drove the strong performance, helping strengthen Ghana’s external position during the period.
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The firm said the H1 trade surplus was substantially higher than it had anticipated, prompting it to revise its full-year current account outlook.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.
The revised forecast points to a significantly stronger external position for Ghana in 2026, with export earnings providing substantial support to the country’s current account.
Gold remains a particularly important component of Ghana’s export performance, providing a major source of foreign exchange earnings and helping to underpin the country’s external balance.
Fitch Solutions, however, expects some moderation in Ghana’s external position in 2027, forecasting a narrower current account surplus. The firm nevertheless expects the balance to remain sizeable.
The latest outlook highlights the continued importance of commodity exports to Ghana’s external position, particularly gold and crude oil.
The stronger-than-expected trade balance in the first half of 2026 also provides Ghana with a larger external buffer, potentially strengthening its capacity to withstand external pressures.
However, the sustainability of the improved position will depend significantly on the performance of Ghana’s commodity exports, global commodity prices, and developments in international trade.
For now, Fitch Solutions’ revised 7.8% of GDP projection represents a significant improvement over its previous forecast and reflects the stronger-than-anticipated performance of Ghana’s external sector in the first half of 2026.