Private legal practitioner Martin Kpebu has predicted that the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win the 2028 general elections.
He, however, cautioned that the party could suffer a significant reduction in its vote margin.
Speaking on TV3’s The Key Points on Saturday, October 24, 2026, Mr Kpebu said public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of free speech and arrests could affect its electoral performance, even if the NDC ultimately retains power.
He acknowledged that the government had created opportunities for a fresh start after taking office but argued that concerns over freedom of expression had weakened public enthusiasm compared with the excitement surrounding the party’s return to power.
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Mr Kpebu maintained that Ghanaians are particularly sensitive to restrictions on free expression and warned that arrests involving political commentary could undermine the government’s public image.
He cited the arrest of Abubakar Yakubu, popularly known as Baba Amando, the Sunyani East Constituency Communications Officer for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), over what he described as political satire, arguing that the incident illustrated the risks of restricting expression.
According to him, the government must allow citizens to express their views, including through satire and criticism, without creating the impression that dissent will be punished.
“The moment you touch their free speech, there’s nothing you do that will look good to Ghanaians,” he said.
Mr Kpebu’s prediction, however, contrasts with the arguments presented by IMANI Africa vice-president Kofi Bentil, who questioned whether the NDC would enjoy the same electoral advantage in 2028 amid changes in leadership and the political environment.
Mr Bentil argued that the next election could be fundamentally different because President John Dramani Mahama would be leaving office after his current term, creating uncertainty over the party’s leadership and succession.
He also raised questions about the influence of Johnson Asiedu Nketiah and the possible presidential ambitions of other NDC figures, including Dr Cassiel Ato Forson.
Mr Bentil rejected the suggestion that the NDC’s victory was assured, arguing that the party could not simply rely on the electoral strength that brought it to power in 2024.
He also questioned who is exercising influence behind the scenes in the governing party, suggesting that uncertainty over decision-making could become an electoral liability.
Although Mr Kpebu remained confident of an NDC victory, he said the party should expect its vote margin to fall significantly.
He drew a comparison with Ghana’s electoral history, citing the reduction in former President John Dramani Mahama’s vote performance between the 2012 and 2016 elections as an example of how electoral fortunes can change.
The legal practitioner suggested that voters could support an incumbent government at one election and punish it at the next if their expectations were not met.
Mr Bentil, however, maintained that the absence of a sitting president seeking another term and the uncertainty surrounding the NDC’s next presidential candidate would make the 2028 contest different from previous elections.