The Bank of Ghana (BoG) could resume cutting its policy rate at its final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 if fuel and other energy-related cost pressures ease, according to Databank Research.
The analysts say the outlook for fuel prices and their impact on inflation expectations will be a key factor in determining whether the central bank resumes its monetary easing cycle.
The MPC has kept the policy rate at 14% for three consecutive meetings, adopting a cautious approach amid renewed pressures from energy, utility and transport costs.
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Although Ghana’s headline inflation remains relatively low, Databank Research says the figure alone may not be sufficient to prompt another policy rate cut.
The key consideration, according to the analysts, will be whether the recent increases in fuel, energy, utility and transport costs are temporary or likely to persist and influence inflation expectations.
A sustained reduction in fuel and related transport costs could ease pressure on businesses and households. It could also help keep inflation expectations anchored and create greater room for the MPC to resume monetary easing.
However, if fuel and energy costs remain elevated, the central bank could maintain its cautious approach, particularly if higher operating costs begin to feed through into prices of other goods and services.
Databank Research described the latest decision to maintain the policy rate at 14% as a risk-management pause, rather than a fundamental shift in the broader disinflation outlook.
The analysts noted that underlying inflation remains contained and that the real policy rate remains firmly positive.
Nevertheless, they warned that higher energy, utility and transport costs could create second-round inflationary effects if businesses pass increased operating costs on to consumers.
The MPC will also monitor developments in the foreign exchange market and Ghana’s external buffers ahead of its final meeting of the year.
A stable Ghana cedi could help contain imported inflation, while stronger foreign exchange reserves would provide additional protection against external shocks.
For the November MPC meeting, the key question will therefore be whether recent cost pressures, particularly those linked to fuel and energy, have eased sufficiently to keep inflation expectations anchored.
According to the analysts, a resumption of policy rate cuts would likely require clearer evidence that fuel-related price pressures are moderating, inflation expectations remain well anchored, the exchange rate is stable, and Ghana’s external buffers continue to improve.