Former Energy Minister Boakye Kyeremanteng Agyarko has taken a commanding lead in the NPP chairmanship race, according to a new survey conducted by the Ghana Watch Initiative International (GWI).
The survey puts Boakye Agyarko at 51.81%, significantly ahead of former NPP General Secretary John Boadu, who recorded 32.32%.
Former NPP National Chairman Paul Afoko follows with 12.39%, while former NPP Vice Chairman Sammy Crabbe recorded 3.48%.
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The findings are contained in a Candidate Assessment and Political Survey Report – NPP National Chairmanship 2026, which was conducted by the GWI between September 1 and 12, 2026.
The survey covered all 16 regions and 276 constituencies, with 2,098 respondents sampled from constituency executives.
According to the report, Mr Agyarko’s 51.81% support gives him an outright majority among the sampled delegates, rather than simply placing him ahead of his competitors.
The survey projects that if the same voting pattern were applied to the NPP’s official statutory delegate population of 7,160, Mr Agyarko would obtain approximately 3,710 votes.
That figure would be above the projected 3,581 votes required for a simple majority.
John Boadu is projected to secure about 2,314 votes, Paul Afoko 887 votes, and Sammy Crabbe approximately 249 votes.
The research team consequently describes Mr Agyarko as the current frontrunner in the NPP chairmanship race.
However, the report cautions that the projection assumes delegates outside the constituency executive structure would have voting preferences similar to those captured in the survey.
The survey further indicates that Mr Agyarko leads in 13 of Ghana’s 16 regions, highlighting what the researchers describe as broad national support.
He recorded his strongest showing in the Ashanti Region, where he polled 58.5%, followed by North East with 56.5%, Western North with 55.9% and Eastern with 55.8%.
He also led in Greater Accra with 53.7%, Upper West with 54.8%, Upper East with 53.5%, Bono East with 52.4% and Western with 52.7%.
Mr Boadu, however, maintained leads in Bono, Central and Savannah.
He recorded 44% in Bono, 43.4% in Central and 45.3% in Savannah.
The report attributes Mr Boadu’s regional strength partly to his extensive organisational experience and networks developed during his years as a senior NPP executive.
Although Paul Afoko trails the two leading candidates, the survey identifies him as a potentially influential figure in any second-ballot scenario.
The NPP Chairmanship race survey report says 48% of Afoko supporters who expressed a second preference selected Agyarko, while 31% chose Boadu.
The finding, according to the researchers, suggests that Mr Afoko’s support base could be more inclined towards a candidate perceived as capable of reconciliation and party unity.
The survey also found that Sammy Crabbe’s supporters were divided over their second choice, although the researchers noted that his relatively small support base would limit its impact on the overall contest.
The survey identifies party unity as one of the most important considerations shaping delegates’ preferences.
Mr Agyarko recorded a 4.2 out of 5 rating on the question of which candidate was most capable of uniting the party.
Mr Boadu scored 3.4.
The report further states that candidates who scored above four on the unity measure were 2.3 times more likely to be selected as a first choice.
Delegates also ranked fundraising capacity highly, with the report indicating that the ability to raise funds was the second most important leadership attribute after unity.
The findings suggest that the chairmanship contest is being shaped not only by organisational experience but also by delegates’ expectations for reconciliation and rebuilding ahead of the 2028 general elections.
The GWI report estimates a 68% probability that Mr Agyarko could win the chairmanship on the first ballot based on the current trajectory and its analysis of second-choice preferences.
The report gives a 95% confidence interval of 61% to 74%.
It nevertheless identifies John Boadu as the strongest challenger because of his organisational experience and established grassroots networks.
Paul Afoko, meanwhile, is described as a potential “kingmaker”, given the size and political character of his support base.
The national executive elections are scheduled for October 3, 2026, with Boadu, Sammy Crabbe, Afoko and Agyarko contesting the NPP Chairmanship race. Recent balloting placed Boadu first, Crabbe second, Afoko third and Agyarko fourth on the ballot.