Ghana is sitting on nearly US$12 billion in unrealised export potential, even as the country records strong macroeconomic gains and a historic trade surplus, the World Bank has warned.
The assessment was made at a joint seminar organised by the World Bank, the African Center for Economic Transformation, and the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research in Accra on May 7, under the theme “Rethinking Trade for Growth and Jobs in Ghana.”
According to the report, Ghana recorded a trade surplus of US$13.6 billion in 2025, a sign of recovery but not yet evidence of structural transformation. The World Bank’s message was that Ghana’s external sector may be improving, but the country is still failing to convert its geographic position, trade agreements, and production potential into a diversified export engine.
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World Bank Regional Director Seynabou Sakho said Ghana must treat current global headwinds as an opening rather than a reason for caution.
“You should never let the risk prevent you from seizing on the opportunities,” she told participants.
Ms Sakho pointed to Ghana’s position as host of the African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat as a strategic asset that has not yet been fully converted into export growth. She said deeper regional value chains and diversification into agribusiness, manufacturing, and digital services could help Ghana capture a larger share of intra-African trade.
The argument is significant because intra-African trade tends to be more manufacturing-intensive and more employment-generating than Africa’s trade with the rest of the world. For Ghana, this means AfCFTA is not merely a diplomatic trophy; it is a potential industrialisation platform.
World Bank Senior Economist Rami Galal attributed Ghana’s export underperformance to an undiversified production base, weak trade facilitation, and persistent non-tariff barriers that raise the cost of doing business across borders.
The diagnosis goes to the heart of Ghana’s long-running development challenge. The country has repeatedly spoken about export diversification, value addition, and regional trade leadership, but still relies heavily on a narrow export basket dominated by commodities.
Gold, cocoa, and oil continue to shape the external account. While these exports can produce strong trade numbers when prices are favourable, they do not automatically create the broad-based industrial jobs Ghana needs.
That is why the World Bank’s US$12 billion estimate matters. It suggests that Ghana’s export problem is not simply lack of market access. It is the inability to convert market access into competitive production.
Ms Sakho also commended the government’s 24-hour economy agenda, describing it as aligned with the challenge of building a more dynamic, export-oriented private sector capable of turning macroeconomic stability into sustained job creation. She noted that Ghana could potentially double its exports by addressing known structural constraints.
The policy implication is clear: Ghana’s recovery story will remain incomplete if it does not produce a stronger export base.
The country has made progress in stabilising parts of the macroeconomy after fiscal stress, debt restructuring, and inflationary pressures. But stability alone does not create transformation. It must be used to lower business uncertainty, attract investment, improve logistics, deepen manufacturing, and help firms compete across regional and global markets.
Trade facilitation will be central to this effort. High border costs, slow customs processes, standards challenges, poor transport links and fragmented regulatory requirements can weaken even the most ambitious export strategy.
For Ghanaian firms, the opportunity is not only to sell more raw commodities. It is to move into processed foods, pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, packaging, digital services, agro-processing, and other tradable sectors where the country can build scale.
AfCFTA gives Ghana a platform, but not a guarantee. Hosting the Secretariat does not automatically make Ghana a continental trade hub. That status must be earned through infrastructure, competitive firms, efficient ports, reliable power, trade finance, standards compliance, and predictable regulation.
The World Bank’s warning, therefore, lands at an important moment.
Ghana is trying to reposition itself after a difficult debt crisis. Investor confidence is gradually returning, but the next phase of growth must be driven less by consumption and commodity cycles and more by productivity, exports, and private-sector expansion.
The US$12 billion export gap is both an indictment and an opportunity.
The harder question is whether Ghana can finally build the production systems, institutions, and competitive firms needed to turn that potential into jobs, foreign exchange, and structural transformation.
NorvanReports